By John F.
Benemelis
Yemen, heel of the Arabian Peninsula, is a country predominantly tribal. The north has long been a territorial unit in the city center of Sana'a, and was independent throughout the Middle Ages, but then fell to the Turks. The southern part, always refused to join the North on their property differently, both tribal and cultural. The South was the territory that the British colonized (the so-called Arab Emirates) and became an independent country in the mid sixties, only after a bloody armed struggle against the British. Historically, there have been constant political and military clashes between the northern, more orthodox from the Islamic point of view, and the south, lay, until early in the decade of 1990 was achieved unification of the two territories.
The current popular revolution in Yemen, stars to President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who launched the protests, to political classic, a tribal society and external relations. President Saleh has been in power for almost 33 years. We must have 12 years in the former North Yemen and 21 in the unified Yemen. President Saleh has certainly been more astute politician and a Yemeni born survivor, a "change coat" that has balanced its tendency to accumulate power greedy with their desire for wealth in their hands and their families.
Salé in 1962 participated in the successful military uprising led by Colonel Abdullah As-Salal against the king Imam Muhammad al-Badr, a fact that proclaimed the Yemen Arab Republic. But the Shiite Imam, assisted by Saudi Arabia, he reorganized his forces to regain power, beginning a civil war. As a battalion commander in charge of the defense of the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, Salé was one of those involved in the coup in June 1974 that replaced the then President Abdul Rahman al-Iriani. In June 1978 President Ahmad al-Gashmi, was killed by exploiting a suitcase sent by the government of South Yemen. Gen. Saleh assumed leadership of the General Staff of the Army armored forces, and integrated the Presidential Council led by Abdul Karim al-Arashi.
In northern Yemen, have dominion always two powerful tribal confederations: the Hashid and Bakeel. When you exit, part of the Hashid tribal confederation, took power in 1978, relied on his own tribe (the Sanhe), and in the other tribes of the confederacy Hashid, marginalizing the tribe Bake step, the rival of that. Nepotism and corruption of Salé led to his own tribesmen clans opposed him, then, President Saleh did the unthinkable and unforgivable, to compromise with rival tribal confederation, with the Bakeel; move that earned him the longest-holding power, as the Yemeni tribe Bakeel is the largest and the most reach.
General Saleh was found to be the most visible personero a moderate pro-Egyptian, pro-Saudi and pro-American, and won for U.S. military weapons for the military campaign against the socialist South Yemen . In this war against Yemen's southern border in 1979, General Saleh met with the then leader Southerner, the Marxist Abdul Fatah Ismail to carry out the merger of the two territories.
In August 1981 the Northern army crushed an invasion guerrilla Salé National Democratic Front (JWD), sponsored by the Southern system of Aden. General Saleh was then presented to the city of Aden, South Yemen, negotiating with adenita then president Ali Nasser Mohammed the creation of a council formed by the two presidents to oversee the work reunified.
virtually depended North Yemen, Saudi Arabia in two ways: family remittances from one million migrant workers and direct government financial support of Riyadh. But in 1985, then-King Saudi Fahad, caused a collapse in oil prices, leaving work to hundreds of thousands of Yemenis. Saudi Arabia has not looked favorably upon the idea of \u200b\u200ba unification of the two Yemen. In addition to a large section of the border with Yemen was to be defined, since the founding of the Saudi kingdom in 1932, and always took place at that border tensions and armed clashes.
Salé The president and then approached the Soviet Union and radical Arab countries (Libya, Syria, Iraq) to diversify trade and seeking financial relief. In October 1981, Saleh traveled to Moscow to renegotiate the payment of arms supplied and in October 1984 with the Kremlin signed a Treaty of Amity and Cooperation valid for 20 years. Absolutely identified with the Palestinian cause and a close friend of Yasser Arafat, President Saleh gave shelter to Al-Fatah Fedayeen, which established its headquarters in Sana'a.
The discovery in 1985 of major oil reserves in the area of \u200b\u200bMareb-Al Jauf aroused great expectations in a desolate country, but the economic slump in the international market produced returns well below those expected.
Throughout his career, Salé, as every politician Yemeni created an extensive network of patronage which included influential tribal chiefs, Islamic jurists and senior military. This pipe dream called General People's Congress (GPC), an alleged party with which he has ruled from Sana'a as its capital. Heir to a primarily military, the party leader as noryemení structured way of support to establish a form of unification with the south. In the second half of the eighties Salé, led a policy of national reconciliation based on a double, but fragile balance between the tribes of the interior (bastions of traditionalism and autonomous from the central government), and the Army attached to secularism and republicanism. And, on the other hand, among the Shiite sect zaidita (59% of the population), and the Sunnis of the Shafi'i subsectors (39%). To the great surprise in the elections of July 1988, a quarter of the seats had gone to the Muslim Brotherhood militants.
Meanwhile, in southern Yemen bloody battles took place between the factions of the ruling Socialist Party in 1986 reached levels of a civil war that ended with the defeat of the faction led by pro-Soviet Abdul-Fatah Ismail. The new strong man of the South, Abu Bakr al-Attas, immediately sought an alliance of northern Yemen, realizing chaos taking place in the Soviet bloc and the USSR affected. Between 1986 and 1989 steps were taken between the capital, Aden and Sana'a, to establish a unified state and a suspected multi-party model.
But in both Yemen was a stubborn resistance to unification. The heart of the discord was the position of the Sharia legal system in the state. Northern traditionalists and fundamentalists demanded his consecration as sole source of law, while southern areas fiercely opposed, especially by the treatment of women. The Saudis also tried to abort a merger that would form a secular promontory in the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, and suspicious that the president could control Salé Northern Southerners. The Saudis incited uprisings noryemenitas traditional tribes, which triggered a wave of terrorist attacks against suryemenitas.
The May 22, 1990 Presidents Attas Salé and proclaimed in the city of Aden the merger and Salé became head of state, with a Presidential Council with two members of the South, and two members of the North. Attas became prime minister.
But the new state was a disaster before the Iraq invasion of Kuwait on 2 August. Salé was indebted to Saddam Hussein, whom he had supported during the war with Iran, and also for its generous contribution to the unification, quite the contrary to Saudi Arabia. The streets of the country became a hotbed of support for Saddam Hussein and President Saleh was marked throughout the Gulf crisis, for their unconditional support to Iraq. In January 1991, Yemen submitted to the Security Council of the UN peace plan that included an unconditional Iraqi withdrawal from Kuwait, which was unsuccessful.
After the defeat of Iraq, Saleh paid dearly bet the wrong horse. Saudi Arabia expelled unceremoniously one million Yemeni residents, while the Gulf monarchies and some Western countries, cut its development cooperation and lines of credit. The brutal drop in state revenues Yemeni further unbalanced trade deficit worsened the foreign debt, devalued the currency, the rial, and inflation triggered the disastrous effects on unemployment.
In the April 1993 elections to the House of Representatives, the alliance between the party of President Saleh in the southern premier Attas went into crisis when an unsuccessful attempt to merge party. Southerners began adenitas to externalize their distaste for the loophole that was taking the unification, interpreted as a mere South weaker absorption by the North. Also not produced the expected integration of the two armies, which were virtually separated into control and troops.
The framework built by Saleh began to fracture by welding precariously linking Islam with traditionalism on the one hand, and secularism and socialism on the other. Southern politicians were disturbed by the bombing campaign conducted against them by Islamic northerners, while rejecting the compromise with the tribal traditionalists also from the north.
In August 1993, the elected vice-president Southern, Ali Salem Al-Baid refused to appear at Sana'a, the capital of the state, claiming that the fundamentalists want to kill him. In February and April 1994 incidents were generalized and fighting between northerners and southerners, in different parts of the country. On 5 May, the country plunged into civil war, when Saleh declared a state of emergency to "neutralize the separatist elements", accusing the vice-president Al-Baid to "lead the nation into the abyss of fratricide" .
The contest was so brief and bloody, with ground operations and bombings air. The superiority of Salé army came after several days of fierce battles, and the Northerners entered the city of Aden on 5 July. Al-Baid from their stronghold in the southern mountains of the region of Hadramut received no international recognition, even of Saudi Arabia interested in the failure of a unified Yemen democratizing pretensions. Attas had been dismissed on suspicion Salé, started from his refuge Saudi National Front Opposition. Al-Baid, however, reported from Oman withdrawal from political activity.
The September 28, 1994 the legislature confirmed to the Shariah as the only source of law and enshrined the supremacy of the party of President Saleh. The North-South Presidential Council was dissolved and Sale was inaugurated president, a vice president of his party, General Abdul al-Hadi. The northerners revenge multiplied, becoming in fact the south entirely subject to the police and the courts in Sana'a. The former single party was marginalized South of the legislative elections, and slid to an unambiguous opposition.
Then, the president sought Salé rebuild ties with the Arab world and Iran, liquidating two territorial disputes: that of Saudi Arabia, which renounced the regions from the 1930 losses, and Eritrea by the delimitation of maritime boundary at the entrance of the Red Sea. Saleh visited France in October 1997, and the United States in April 2000.
The Islamist attack of October 12, 2000 against a U.S. destroyer docked in the port of Aden, slightly damaged the good relations with Washington and revealed the influence of fundamentalists in Yemen after Saleh gave approve the priority of the Shariah. Was evident, in turn, the fragile security of the country, the abduction of foreigners by the northern tribes, fighting between Muslim fundamentalists of the Muslim Brotherhood and traditional followers of cults, both Sunni and Sufi as well as government repression against journalists and activists protest. On the other hand, Salé, garlanded as a quarterback in December 1997 took over the Falcons in the Arab world demanded strong action against Israel in the Arab world.
The genesis of the current popular explosion takes place by the incongruity of Yemen as a country. Were not only high levels of corruption, nepotism, the government of President Saleh, politically illegitimate. Among the long list of problems faced by the government of President Saleh, are the known Houthi Zaidi rebellion in the northern region of Saada, and the secessionist movement in the south, thus promoting the revival and strengthening of the old tribal structures as well as the settlement of international terrorist groups.
The guerrillas known as Houthis, constitute a group zaiditas rebel tribesmen, who was named after Sheikh Hussein al-Houthi, a Shiite religious leader of vast prestige in the north, who started a movement protest in favor of Al Qaeda and against the alignment Yemeni United States in the War on Terrorism. The Shiite Sheikh Al-Houthi was killed by people close to president in 2004, but his followers continue the armed opposition to the present day, secretly supported by Saudi Arabia, which provides them with weapons, resources and shelters.
zaidita This community, the center of Shiism in the entire Middle East, and whose Imam has more prestige and authority that the Iranian ayatollahs, was the pole of political power in North Yemen for centuries. Founded the Zaidi Shia Imamate of Yemen in the late ninth century and remained in power until the revolution pro-Nasser, the nationalist military of 1962 overthrew the Imam Muhammad al-Badr, since then, the new government worked to weaken the Zaidi, who look back to regain political power and social and religious influence in Yemen today.
Moreover, secessionist tendencies in southern Yemen have increased to the neglect of the Heal the economic problems and political and social marginalization of the Southern leaders, with the patronage of President Saleh for his tribal clients , which was formed during the 1994 civil war, in which the current president defeated his opponents in elections socialist South Yemen.
The current protests in southern Yemen are not new, nor are determined by the events of the contemporary Islamic world. South pronouncements are triggered as early as 2007, with the unfulfilled promises of political reform by President Saleh, in response to the bloody repression that took place against such demonstration in the city of Aden. And while it is in the area of \u200b\u200bShabwa, in the south, where many oil facilities in the country, southerners accuse the North of having seized these resources and Had they been excluded.
Another element by which the southern Yemeni seek separation is the inability of central government, from Sanaa to administer and govern the territories of the south, especially southeastern Yemen, which has been virtually out of control, thus facilitating the settlement of terrorist groups linked to al-Qaeda exploiting the military infrastructure and guerrilla training previously built by the Cubans on the island of Socotra, in the eastern part of Bab-el-Mandeb, inside the Hadramut, on the border with the Rub-al-Khali and Radfan Yemen, bordering Oman.
This current crisis in addition to economic indicators that put Yemen as the poorest Arab countries, and as dependence income from oil revenues, which account for 76% of the state budget. The country is mired in an economic tailspin forced the devaluation of the riyal, with mounting debt, inadequate bank reserves, and can only cover half of the imports required annually. The increased cost of living, especially given the high price of imported staples such as rice, wheat and corn, in addition to the worsening drought and the sharp increase in the cost of fertilizers, promote social unrest and the sense of frustration with the state. With a population of 23 million inhabitants, 65% are under 25 years and unemployment is 40%. 50% of the population lives below the poverty line.
The massive illiteracy, lack of economic diversification as the expiry of its oil within a few years, and even more serious dilemma of water shortages also weighed in this alarming situation in Yemen. Security is broken mainly by the tribal structure, the proliferation of weapons, and that Yemen is becoming a safe haven for members of Al Qaeda. This instability is looming dangerously close to a strategic area for the global economy: the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb.
According to Foreign Policy magazine and the Fund for Peace accredited institution, Yemen is located in the place 15, the ranking of the so called "Failed States", based on key social indicators such as population pressure (23 million), the humanitarian crisis, the inter-tribal clashes, uneven economic development between groups, the growth of informal economy, the level of debt, poverty level, the level of corruption of the elite, the level of distrust in institutions and state processes, the degree of fragmentation of the elite (The Fund for Peace, 2010).
events in Tunisia and Egypt achieved trigger political unrest in Yemen. The news of the resignation of Hosni Mubarak was shocking to the Yemen. The anti-government demonstrations were fired and with equal intensity repression by supporters of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who came protesters armed with knives and sticks. January 27, the opposition went to the streets carrying placards demanding the resignation of President Saleh, shouting slogans such as "Ben Ali was after 20 years. 30 years in Yemen, that's enough, "ITU are the third, O Ali!" Denouncing corruption and calling for political and social improvements; riots that have continued until today.
The Yemeni president called the protesters "thugs" working for foreign powers seeking to destabilize the country and its government. On February 3, the day, called "Day of Wrath", was held as planned by the opposition. While the government sent thousands of his followers to Tahir Square (Liberation), in the center of the capital, where he was provided the meeting of opponents. Students then changed the place where they did demonstrations. Thousands of people also spoke out peacefully on the third-largest city, in Taiz.
Young Protestants settled on the campus of the University of Sana'a and the three surrounding streets, there are at least 20.000 grouped opponents, as in the city of Aden, shouting in unison "No one hereditary system, not an extension of the mandate. " The opposition decided to join the protesters, made up to now mainly by students, to demand from Tahrir Square's regime fell. The regime fell down to the security forces, who fired at close range and gassed the protesters to dismantle the camps set up there by students and other groups of protesters.
The UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon expressed concern at the events and urged the government and opposition groups in Yemen to open a dialogue to avoid further deterioration of the Yemeni crisis, because of the repression unleashed by police forces in University Square, against those who demanded political reforms and an end to the 32-year tenure of Sale. The holder of the UN urged the authorities to respect the rules of international humanitarian law and to investigate the alleged existence of extra-judicial killings. Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State United States asked the government to implement reforms, and called unacceptable violence by security forces to quell protests.
The major riots have occurred in the city of Taiz, considered the cultural capital of Yemen, located south of the capital, Sanaa. Taiz was the first city to mobilize against the regime of President Saleh following the example of Tunisia and Egypt. Since mid-February, thousands of girls and women remain camped in the Place de la Libertad. Common among Yemenis with the remaining protesters from the Islamic world is the order of improvements in living conditions in a country where half the population (about 12 million) live on less than two dollars a day and one-third suffer from chronic hunger.
Furthermore, civil disobedience has virtually paralyzed the port city of Aden. Opposition groups have been launched there a civil disobedience campaign, supporting that takes place in northern cities, and although able paralyze trade and port activity adenita has not been as consistent as in other cities, especially in Sana'a and Taiz. In the case of the southern portion of Yemen, centered in the cities of Aden and Mukalla, the complaint most voceada has been the marginalization of the region since the country's unification in 1990, which has returned with great force to the separatist movement who wants to regain independence for the former Democratic Republic of Yemen.
What has attracted attention is the participation of women in all cities, where thousands constantly walk the streets of major cities (Aden, Taiz, Hodeidah, Sana'a, Mukalla, Lájei). Women, have highlighted the activist-Maktari Bush, in a few weeks it has become a leader of the opposition. On the other hand, the opposition, Hassan Machaimaa, exiled in London, announced his return to the country, despite the terrorism charges. The opposition has resorted to "sit" of thousands of Yemenis in public places the road blocks and in cases, bloody clashes, the "executions" of renowned Yemeni president's defenders, as well as state of rebellion in some military units.
The use of force, gas, armored vehicles and tanks was not sufficient to stop the demonstrations. However, as in Libya, so far the demonstrations have failed Yemeni the effect they had in Egypt, who capped his victory forcing President Hosni Mubarak to resign his office. And, moreover, have not borne fruit orders of President Saleh to the opposition, to cease their protests, with a view to negotiate a "peaceful transfer of power."
President Saleh, told reporters that will not go over that "through the ballot box, despite the intensification of rejection. He also warned the opposition not to organize demonstrations, and causing "chaos and destruction", and urged them to participate in a national unity government. In turn, announced a package of measures to calm the situation presidential, promising he would not run the following presidential election and that his son would not seek the presidency. He also presented a plan for constitutional reform. "I propose a new initiative to the country to avoid sedition, "he told thousands of people gathered in Sana'a, promising" a referendum before the end of the year to vote on a new constitution which clearly envisage the separation of powers. "
However, his words have not received the enthusiastic support of the opposition, on the contrary, his opponents did not agree to the negotiation and considered these actions as a ploy by President Saleh. "The president's initiative is over, is the death certificate of the political regime whose purpose claimed by the protesters, "Mohamad told AFP al-Sabri, spokesman of the parliamentary opposition.
three weeks ago after the killing of 52 people in the city of Sana'a, it seemed that President Saleh was ready to go and even started to negotiate the terms. However, since then, the president is dedicated to mobilize their supporters, making it clear they do not plan to resign. Yemen is facing this wave of protests, compared to previous decades, is suffering from a state that has eroded his power and ability to exercise authority throughout the territory, which prevents it from meeting the basic needs of the population.
The increasing demand made by the demonstrators, political participation and economic, and the rapid reduction of revenues, weakened the traditional Salé president's ability to maintain a viable political coalition. It appears that the withdrawal from the scene of President Saleh is inevitable, but the uncertainty is the later development in the distribution of power between the forces vying for it.
The great difficulty of this popular movement is whether it can achieve. after the departure of President Saleh, removal from membership of the powerful CGP, their positions and functions, which also have an undeniably strong tribal support. And many of his political skills have assumed to be "reformers" and put personal distance to President Saleh, splitting the ruling party into two independent blocks, aspiring to be the beneficiaries of this popular revolt.
Undoubtedly the Yemeni survey was initiated by students, civil society activists, by masses of unemployed and marginalized by many frustrated with the behavior and dynamics of political parties to which they belong. These young people from diverse tribal and territorial coalesced through social networks, television stations and activities of civil organizations. This amalgamation has symbolized the legitimacy of change, becoming center of gravity for the disaffected of the regime. His dozens of martyrs, especially the March 18, when more than 52 young people lost their lives, have unleashed a string of defections from the regime, finally tipping the balance against President Saleh and his acolytes.
But little by little, the voice that calls for the resignation of President Saleh, leaks away from the hand of the protesters, and is focusing on core traditional political parties, employers, tribes and groups of interest that have jumped the bandwagon of late events.
Salé presidential crisis deepened when the powerful tribal sheikhs Bakeel confederation, the tribe which now shares power, as the sheikhs of the other tribal confederation, the Hashid, his native tribe to which betrayed him, reached an agreement to remove the President Saleh, leaving you with no social base. The big surprise, then triggered the demonstrations, was the virtually unanimous support of the tribesmen and Bakeel Hashid the protests. This is due to two factors: first, the Saudis, to support economically important sheikhs of both confederations, decided to abandon the president Saleh, seeking to resolve quickly the movement, that had no impact on Saudi Arabia. Moreover, in the two tribal confederations reigns a deep dissatisfaction with President Saleh practices, especially the Hashid, from which President Saleh, and is not to throw in his lot on the losing side.
The estimate is that more than 120 people have died and some 5,000 wounded since the start of the protests in February. This was the reason why many military commanders, including Gen. Ali Mohsen, a tribesman Hashid decide to join the protests, which meant the final wake-up call to President Saleh. Although the General Ali Mohsen said he has no interest in taking power or positions of State.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon called for a negotiated solution to the Yemeni transition as soon as possible. The Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell would express that the situation was very difficult and that the more time passed it would become more difficult. The fact that Saudi Arabia has put forward the same arguments and almost the same language suggests an agreement between the Saudis and Americans in the case of Yemen. In London, the Foreign Minister, William Hague stated that they were shocked by the bloodshed, condemning the indiscriminate use of violence by security forces, especially when President Saleh had promised to restrict the maximum use of the security forces to control peaceful demonstrations.
Gulf Arab countries invited representatives of government and opposition hold talks in Saudi Arabia. But Saleh has ignored the orders of a power transfer plan proposed by the opposition, accepted by almost all Arab countries, including dissident General Ali Mohsen, and the representative of the opposition parties, Mohammed Al-Sabri.
to discredit President Saleh, the Yemeni security forces, its guard president, he was made a general attack on Mohsen, also firing at a group of faithful, many of whom lost their lives.
The Yemeni political scene today is as follows:
a) The General People's Congress (GPC) ruling party has its power base in the powerful and warlike tribes Bakeel, bordering Saudi Arabia.
b) The Joint Committee on Games (CCP), founded in 2002, a relatively cohesive coalition of at least six opposition formations.
c) The Islamic Congregation for Reform; the Islah party, which brings together moderates and Islamic fundamentalists.
d) The Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP), single ruling party in South Yemen before unification.
These parties form the SPCs have been mobilized in support of the demonstrations, each from its particular vision of the future Yemen, being both extremes: those who seek to establish an Islamic society "Taliban" maintained by the sharia (with deep roots in the northern parts of the country), and the factions and members to promote the modernization and democratization of the structures (essentially the coastal region from Hodeidah-Taiz and Aden and South).
The good news is that all parties could benefit from changing the rules of the political game, especially if they can impose an electoral system to replace the current single candidate constituencies.
The crisis which has engulfed Yemen never had international attention. Underdevelopment that eats the country, tribal clashes, internal displacement by armed conflict and massacres, acute water crisis, the incredible unemployment, etc., were never part of the agenda to be solved by the wealthy petro-oligarchy Arab or Western powers.
was from the Yemeni territorial transformation training base for Al-Qaeda when the West put his real attention there. It was childish to think that was neutralized in Yemen to the Al-Qaeda when they settled the Abu al-Hariti dangerous, one of the leaders involved in the attack on the USS Cole in Aden in 2000. Should not forget that the Arab army that participated in the jihad against Soviet occupation in Afghanistan was made in the vast majority of Yemenis recruited by Osama bin Laden, who is considered a Yemeni.
Already in 2009, Al-Qaeda was showing signs of resurgence in Yemen, supported by the spiritual leader of Anwar al-Aulaqui, and the pact between the Saudi fundamentalists with Yemeni fundamentalists, who conceived the AQAP (Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula). U.S. bombing of alleged Al-Aulaqui dens, and military aid to the government in Sanaa, did not stop the growth or the actions of Al-Qaeda terrorists. Please note that the President Sana'a used this military aid from Washington to crack down on Houthi and secessionist rebels in the south.
No government in South Yemen in its history, or even the British in colonial times FNLA or socialists, or the current in Sanaa have managed to control the borders between South Yemen and Saudi Arabia. A no man's land, scorched by heat above 120 degrees, where a country not known where it begins and ends on another. Earth rather than favorable that provides access to Al-Qaeda, through the desert to the borders of most Middle Eastern countries. But even that element should not surprise since from the notion that Ben Laden is a Yemeni Hadramut clan, and all descendants Ben-Laden, as the notorious Osama, are there (and not in Saudi Arabia) its tribal and support network, it was logical to Al Qaeda gravitation toward the uninhabited sands southeast Yemen, in which the administrative and political control of central government in Sanaa has been and is practically zero.
In this scenario, President Saleh for a while decided to play both cards (the West and Al-Qaeda) as a policy against Al-Qaeda front could bring the rejection of the northern tribes, practitioners of fundamentalist Islam. Often the view that President Saleh has been a key ally of the United States and Saudi Arabia in the campaign against terrorism. However, in its policy for both countries, has proved difficult as an agent, which has often faltered in two positions on primarily by Shiite tribal influence in the country, and the support that the bazaars have both Al Qaeda and all acts of violence against the United States.
still unknown what the new rules and policies adopted in Yemen, the day after the fall of President Saleh. We do not know how far the depth of change achieved by these young people, who need to consolidate the revolutionary power, economic resources and technical resources that enable them to compete socially, politically and economically with the traditional tribal political.
Uncertainties ranging from whether there will be a secession of the south, centered in the city of Aden, which is very likely, but it will be a source of violent conflict between the two territories, or the crystallization of Huthi fundamentalist rebellion in the north, or whether the country will remain united with its center in Sana'a. Or rather, the northern part of Yemen, divided his time between rebel tribesmen Huthi bordering Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea coastline, with the axis of the city of Taiz and Hodeidah port.
From the strategic point of view, Yemen, located in the Gulf of Aden, as well as central chorus of the Arabian Peninsula, and Emporium Al-Qaeda, together with the Gulf states is more important to U.S. interests than Libya. It is estimated that Yemen is the country with more guns per capita in the world: 4 firearms per person.
At this time of weakening of central power over the Islamic world and the dilemma of Yemen, the fundamental question for America and the West in general is: which regime will last longer if Saudi Arabia or Iran. If Saudi Arabia does exceed this turmoil, will mean a strategic victory for the West, but if Iran manages to find among the new revolutionary regimes changes closest to their policy, both in Egypt with the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya with the pro-Islamist, as in Yemen with the Shiites, the Ayatollah's theocracy overshadow achieved U.S. influence throughout the Middle East.
While democracy is now part of the identity of much of the world, especially in industrialized countries, but can not be guiding the strategic center of the great political scheme for the Middle East, it would amount to put aside the interests of national security, however cynical an interpretation. Precisely because the Islamic world is already a hive, the more sound is to be prepared for future crises that may cause these changes, much more to worry about the crisis of the moment.
The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the fragility of Pakistan, the Iran's nuclear drive, possible Israeli military response, the possible secession of Libya between Berbers and Arabs, the possible secession between North Yemen and tribal south, the question of future Saudi alignment of Shiite Iraq with Shiite Iran after the departure of American troops, are problems that will not be solved by a policy based on ethical principles of democracy.
Perhaps these crisis of the Islamic world are teaching foreign policy that all moral issues ultimately are overshadowed by issues of power. At present, promote the overthrow of Libyan Muammar el-Qaddafi does not represent or affect the strategic interests of Europe or the United States. But going to the crushed Shia in Bahrain, or the Protestant northern Yemeni Shiites, in their eagerness to strengthen the sharia, whether it affects the general policy of the West for the region.
In any of the alternative futures of Yemen, violence does not seem to be absent. Not without reason, the last British High Commissioner in Aden Mounbatten Lord, who led the decolonization of South Yemen in 1966, argued that with the Yemen Arab world had just received the most complex and explosive problems.
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